Ahead of tonight’s first major tournament appearance since losing to Iceland in Euro 2016, it could be worth reflecting on the defending champions opening group match yesterday which ended in a 1-0 defeat by Mexico.

Prior to this game the pundits were discussing the Mexican coach, Juan Carlos Osorio, and finding it a little difficult to comprehend that he actually changes tactics ‘during a game’.  What was perhaps more alarming is the fact that his opposite number Joachim Low was unable to.   Time and again Mexico counter-attacked against Germany, who were being completely outnumbered at the back.   Had the finishing and final ball of Mexico been of a higher quality they could easily have scored five.

The high tempo and speedy transitions that Mexico managed in the first half together with the goal from Hirving Lozano after 35 minutes was unsustainable in the second, but still Germany were getting caught out at the back.   Herein lies the conundrum for tournament football at this level.   The more cultured, possession-style football of the Germans against the highly skilled but nonetheless unfavoured Mexicans with their underdog status, displayed an exhilarating performance showing real desire.   Where one team is expected to dominate possession (which England is tonight) their opponent can allow these teams to come onto them with a well organised defence and then hit them on the counter.

To play a controlled, possession-style type of football in the final third you do need to commit numbers forward.   The numbers are able to fulfil specific roles and therefore patterns of play to hopefully unlock the defence and score a goal.   Both German full backs were playing high up the field so were not at home when Mexico countered.   With at least three Mexico players breaking and, at most, two German central defenders holding the fort, it is easy to see how Mexico were able to make use of the space and create chance after chance.

England will be playing three at the back and mostly these three will be staying at home.   This is in contrast to Germany’s four at the back, on paper, but only two at home.   Even so, depending on the trickery and ball skills of their opponents this could prove difficult for England as the three at the back are not the most mobile.

Of much greater significance for England in tonight’s game could be their declared tactic of playing out from the back.   Tunisia, under coach Nabil Maaloul, may well pre-empt this tactic and apply real pressure to England’s backline.   In such circumstances, it is necessary to adapt one’s game accordingly.  Pressurising England’s backline would involve Tunisia committing numbers forward leaving them vulnerable behind their front line of defence.    In these situations, the long ball can be a very astute tactic and whilst it does not meet the playing out from the back criteria, it will avoid the potential risk of having the ball stolen in front of your own goal and with it, the prospect of going 1-0 down.   Sometimes, it is necessary to change tactics during a game!

The England manager, Gareth Southgate, has stated, “The first thing is to have a really clear understanding of how we want to play.   Stick to your principles, whatever the state of the game”.   This will involve playing out from the back as well as seeking to monopolise possession.   What England are possibly lacking as they embark on their 2018 campaign is a level of self-confidence and an opening goal at the other end could do wonders.

My prediction is 2-0 but not sure who to?